It’s finally championship weekend in the NFL — and online betting in Michigan is finally going live — as I look to build on what was a solid showing in the Divisional Round, aside from a Ravens loss and falling two points shy of the over in the Saints-Bucs game.

Last week: 3-2
Overall record: 24-29-1

We’ve got a pair of great games on tap this weekend; I’d venture to say it’s the best conference championship day we’ve seen in a long time, including 2019 when we got Patriots-Chiefs and Rams-Saints.

NFC Championship Game — Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers (3:05 p.m., FOX)

My picks:

— Green Bay -3.5 (-103)

— Under 51.5 total points

The first game Sunday pits two quarterback legends against each other. Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers for the first time ever in the playoffs. I’ve liked what I’ve seen out of the Packers more so than the Bucs down the stretch this season, as Green Bay has given up more than 20 points in a game just once since December, while averaging 32 points a game during that stretch. Brady and the Bucs torched the Packers 38-10 back in October, but Green Bay looks like an entirely different team since then. I like the prospect of Rodgers playing his very first NFC title game at Lambeau, though with limited fan attendance, it won’t be too raucous for either QB.

I’m not worried about a cold, snowy frozen tundra at Lambeau in terms of Tom Brady being comfortable enough to hang around in this one; he’s won many a playoff game in snowy conditions. But I do think it could play a bit of a factor for both teams in terms of lighting up the scoreboard, so I’m rolling with the under here.

AFC Championship Game — Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (6:40 p.m., CBS)

My picks:

— Kansas City ML (-165)

— Over 2.5 Josh Allen passing TDs (+145)

As of Thursday afternoon, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is still in concussion protocol, though he’s expected to take the field Sunday. These picks clearly hinge on him being healthy enough to play. Even if he’s not fully playing like the Mahomes we’ve grown accustomed to over the last few years, Kansas City still has the talent on both sides of the ball to keep up with a hell of a Bills team. 

Trust me, it’s tempting to ride with Josh Allen, who has racked up 18 passing TDs and just two interceptions since Week 13. That’s why I’m betting on him to put up at least three scores on Sunday.

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